Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors have seen a lot during their dynasty. They’ve played by far the most high-stakes series and squared off with the widest variety of superstars, MVPs, and would-be dethroners during their six Finals trips in eight years.
But the Celtics are unlike any team they’ve faced this season.
Every opponent in the playoffs brings new challenges, and every playoff series is different. However, the Warriors’ history of having won three championships prepared them for every step of their current playoff run.
When the Dubs faced Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol in the 2015 West semifinals, they learned how to effectively defend a big man who can act as his team’s offensive fulcrum. They applied those lessons to Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic in the 2019 WCF.
The Golden State Warriors faced a formidable challenge in the second round of their playoff match-up with Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies: they had to stop a dynamic, game-changing point guard. That might have intimidated a less experienced team than Golden State, which bested Russell Westbrook and his extreme athleticism in the 2016 Western Conference Finals.
Records
For the record, Durant was 27 years old when he helped lead the Warriors to their second championship in three years. The latter part of the 2022 Grizzlies series saw Memphis go big and lean on its rugged defense. Golden State adjusted and advanced, perhaps because those old 2015 Grizzlies were even bigger and more physical than the modern version. The OKC frontcourts featuring a young Steven Adams, Serge Ibaka and Durant also gave the Warriors core and its coaching staff a primer on how to handle a massive size and athleticism disadvantage.
Finally, Luka Doncic and his heliocentric genius arrived in the conference finals. Good thing Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Kevon Looney, Steve Kerr and the rest of the Golden State Warriors had already eliminated an even more lethal version of that team four years ago: The 65-win Houston Rockets of 2017-18 featured a prime James Harden and a switch-happy defense that pushed Golden State to the brink—but not over it.
The Golden State Warriors no longer fear the possibility of facing a singular superstar in the NBA Finals. In fact, they relish it. After defeating LeBron James three out of four times in the Finals from 2015 to 2019, the Warriors have proven that their core can comfortably match up with any opponent’s most formidable player. Through those five consecutive trips to the Finals from 2015 to 2019, the Warriors bested several teams with star-studded rosters full of All-Stars: they derailed a potential dynasty in Oklahoma City; turned Grit and Grind to dust in Memphis; prevented James Harden from one-man-showing his way to a ring in Houston; and denied James extra titles that would have put the GOAT debate to bed.
What will these Celtics offer that the Warriors haven’t seen before?
Start with the numbers.
The Celtics finished the 2018-19 season with a net rating of plus-7.4. That is not their best full-season figure, however. The 2016 Thunder also finished with a net rating of plus-7.4, and the 2018 Rockets were even better at plus-8.4. However, we know that overall stats don’t tell the whole story of a team in the middle of its season. Remember, this team got off to a slow start and didn’t find its stride until head coach Ime Udoka’s schemes sank in and Marcus Smart took over the point on a full-time basis.
After January 1st, the Celtics destroyed the league. Their plus-12.7 net rating is obscene, dwarfing anything Warriors playoff foes of the past ever mustered. Numbers aside, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are a one-two wing punch Golden State has never really seen before. They’re the predictable result of late-2010s Golden State forcing opponents to stockpile as many two-way, weakness-free wings as possible. Those have always been the key to defending the Warriors’ attack. The Tatum-Brown duo also brings a youth-experience combination Golden State has yet to face. Brown is 25 and Tatum is 24, yet they already have seven conference finals berths between them.
But the real threat to Golden State is not in the way Boston is an amalgamation of so many of the top squads Golden State has seen over the years. The Celtics were the best defense in the league this past season, and though the Warriors have survived elite individual stoppers in the past, they’ve never seen a collective group with that distinction in the Finals. What’s more, Marcus Smart is Defensive Player of the Year—basically an ideal weapon to set against Curry, Thompson, Jordan Poole and anyone else with designs on scoring.
The Golden State Warriors have previously faced several former Defensive Player of the Year winners in the NBA playoffs—Dwight Howard in 2015, Rudy Gobert in 2017 and Kawhi Leonard in 2019—but this will be the first time they face one currently holding the trophy. Combined with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, who are fast and mobile for their size, Al Horford gives his team the best chance any team has ever had at stopping the Warriors’ off-ball movement and quick-trigger passing. In addition to ideal personnel, the Celtics also employ a switching scheme that has historically given the Warriors trouble. But while those old Houston Rockets teams switched so frequently because they lacked reliable defenders to hide behind, Boston switches as much because its defenders are great at it.
According to ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, “No other team switched more frequently than the Celtics during the regular season, and they rank second in frequency (44%) so far during the playoffs.” Boston brings the heft of past Grizzlies and Thunder teams, the pick-and-roll-crippling switchability of the Rockets and none of their weaknesses. And while LeBron brought intimidating dominance to the table in those four Finals tilts against Golden State, his Cavs never had stopping power like this year’s Celtics. Cleveland’s best defense during its repeat dates with Golden State ranked 10th (2016) and was as low as 29th (2018).
The Warriors built an impressive resume by beating a variety of opponents. The Rockets, Cavaliers and Thunder each presented a unique challenge for the Warriors, who had no blueprint for beating them. The Celtics’ novelty doesn’t make them unbeatable, but we should expect Golden State to locate and attack pressure points—like the Celtics’ relatively suspect offense, which bogged down late and nearly cost it Game 7 against the Miami Heat in the East finals. The Warriors finished second in defensive efficiency to the Celtics this year, which means they’ll still have a chance to succeed even if Smart and Co. put the clamps on.
The Golden State Warriors will head into their sixth Finals with a depth and breadth of experience no team has ever had, yet they could quickly find themselves searching for answers that past teams did not have. You could frame Boston as a new threat or a combination of many old and familiar ones. Either way, the Warriors are in for a fight unlike any they’ve seen.