In the wake of the Uvalde school shooting, much of the US is urging action on gun control. However, significant obstacles and some new ones have emerged that could impact any reform moving forward.
After a young man shot and killed 26 people, including 20 children, at Sandy Hook elementary school in Newtown, Connecticut, another similar tragedy unfolded at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas.
The Sandy Hook shooting prompted calls for national gun reform, which led to an emotional plea for action from US President Barack Obama. However, efforts to advance gun-control legislation in Congress were unsuccessful.
Following the deaths of 19 children and two adults in Uvalde, President Joe Biden has called on national politicians to take action. In a speech he echoed statements made by President Obama, pleading for change.
He was quoted as saying, “Why are we willing to live with this carnage?” He asked. “Why do we keep letting this happen? Where in God’s name is our backbone to have the courage to deal with it and stand up to the lobbies?”
Despite controlling both chambers of Congress and the presidency this time around, Democrats face similar challenges—and new ones that may be even more formidable—in their efforts to pass new gun-control regulations.
Let’s look at some potential courses of action and the obstacles they will face.
Old roadblocks in Congress
After Sandy Hook, a majority of US senators supported passing legislation to expand background checks for gun purchases. However, because of the filibuster – a parliamentary procedure that requires at least 60 votes in the 100-seat Senate to pass most legislation – a simple majority was not enough.
Today, only a handful of the 50 Republican senators today appear open to new gun legislation, suggesting that any new efforts will meet a similar fate as past ones.
Despite this fact, Democrats are continuing to propose new legislation and offering to work with Republicans to find any common ground.
“It’s a very slim prospect, very slim,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said on Thursday about the chances for success in the current Congress. “And we’ve been burnt so many times before.”
The only Republican-backed proposal to address gun violence has been to create a national database of school safety practices.
Although some conversations about doing more have begun, most Republicans are not participating. Proposals with the greatest support include a “red flag” law that would prevent individuals with mental illness or a criminal history from purchasing firearms and expanded background checks on gun purchasers that would include private gun sales.
Polls show that majorities of Americans support efforts to reduce gun violence. But many Republican senators represent states with large pro-gun communities, whose voters are more opposed than average Americans to reform. As a result, unlikely to change course unless sentiment shifts among that constituency.
Even if these proposed laws are enacted, it is unlikely that they would prevent mass shootings. There have been many instances in which red-flag laws and background checks did not stop a shooting, and they would not do anything to reduce the 393 million firearms currently in the United States.
States pressing ahead
Although congressional efforts to pass gun-control legislation were stymied in 2015, gun-control activists made substantial progress in passing new state laws the same year.
For example, in Connecticut, where reform was demanded by the communities still reeling from the brutality of the Sandy Hook attack, there was overwhelming support for reform. Other Democratic-controlled states -like New York, Maryland and California – passed their own legislation, which included closing gun-show loopholes and limiting magazine sizes.
After a school-shooting plot was narrowly averted in Vermont, Republican Governor Phil Scott worked with Democrats to pass new legislation in the traditionally gun-friendly state. The law, which included raising the age to buy a firearm to 21 and requiring new background checks, angered many of his previous supporters on the right. He easily won re-election in 2018.
But the states that have passed gun-control regulations are mostly controlled by Democrats. And in many Republican-controlled states, the momentum on the gun issue is towards less regulation, not more. In April, Georgia became the 25th state – all Republican – to allow its residents to carry a concealed handgun without a government license.
As a result of the Uvalde massacre, Democratic politicians in those states may cite the event as reason to act. Former congressman Beto O’Rourke, the Democrat running for Texas governor in November, voiced the anger many on the left feel in conservative states as he confronted Republican Governor Greg Abbott at a press conference in Uvalde on Wednesday.
As the Republicans on stage argued with him and removed him from the building, he shouted, “The time to stop the next shooting is now!”
After the attack, Mr. O’Rourke spoke to reporters and listed banning assault weapon sales, universal background checks, red-flag laws and safe gun-storage laws as steps his state could take.
Nevertheless, many of the proposed solutions are likely to be difficult to pass in Texas. The more likely response there will be increased funding for law enforcement and school security measures, such as Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s call for giving more guns to teachers.
Courts are another battleground
Even if lawmakers in Congress or states like Texas, which have been reluctant or outright hostile to enacting gun-control legislation, change their minds, there is an obstacle that could prove insurmountable – the courts.
In 2008, the US Supreme Court ruled that the Second Amendment to the US Constitution guaranteed a personal right to possess a handgun. Since this decision, the courts have only become more supportive of gun ownership rights.
In his two years in office, President Donald Trump has appointed hundreds of conservative judges to the federal courts, including naming three new Supreme Court justices. Two weeks ago, two Trump-appointed appellate-court judges in California struck down a state law prohibiting the sale of assault rifles to those under the age of 21.
The Supreme Court recently upheld that people with mental illness do not get special protection from the death penalty. This ruling could be of particular relevance given that the perpetrators in Uvalde, Sandy Hook and the Buffalo shooting all fall into this category.
One of the judges wrote, “America would not exist without the heroism of the young adults who fought and died in our revolutionary army.” Today we reaffirm that our constitution still protects their right—the right of young adults to keep and bear arms.
The Supreme Court is expected to rule on a New York law restricting who may obtain concealed handgun licenses in the next month, which could jeopardize similar laws in other states.
Because the Supreme Court has already ruled that some gun laws are unconstitutional, it is likely that any new laws will face legal challenges as well—and may not survive long.
